UK Retail & Procurement Pulse: Inflation, Convenience Growth & What It Means for Suppliers

Recent data shows several shifts in the UK procurement and independent retail space. Costs are rising, but there are also new openings — especially for suppliers who can move with speed and precision.

What’s Happening Now

• Grocery inflation in the UK has slightly eased: as of early September 2025, food price inflation is at 4.9%, down from 5.0% the previous month. However, costs in categories like fresh meat, butter, and chocolate are still rising. Reuters

• UK retail sales volume rose by 0.5% in August 2025 (after the same rise in July), compared with the previous month. Office for National Statistics

• On a yearly basis, retail sales are up 0.7% over August 2024, showing modest growth amid economic pressures. Office for National Statistics

Challenges & Opportunities for Suppliers

• Independent retailers are increasingly squeezed by rising wage costs, employer taxes, energy bills, and regulatory burdens. Those suppliers who can offer stable pricing, flexible terms, and efficient delivery will stand out. Lumina Intelligence+2Coface+2

• The convenience channel is forecast to show stronger value growth (~+3.1%) in 2025, driven by more people making frequent, small “top-up” purchases. Symbol groups are growing in importance, while unaffiliated independents are under pressure. Lumina Intelligence

• Retailers are responding by tightening core product ranges and investing more in technologies like digital ordering and data analytics to improve efficiency and reduce waste. Suppliers that can meet demand predictably and adapt quickly have a competitive advantage. Lumina Intelligence+2Deloitte+2

What This Means for The Wholesale Team Ltd

For suppliers, now is the time to align with a partner who understands small-format routes, where consistency, integrity, and speed matter as much as price. As a procurement specialist, we’re focused on:

• Delivering reliable forecasts and reducing lead-times

• Matching supply precisely with what neighbourhood independents need

• Using data and future tech to anticipate shifts rather than chase them

UK Retail & Procurement Outlook 2025: Independent Market Under Pressure, Supply Chains in Focus

As 2025 begins, new data highlights both challenges and opportunities across the UK retail and procurement landscape — with independent retailers under increasing strain, and supply chains emerging as the biggest priority for brands and suppliers.

Independent Retailers Facing Pressure

Recent surveys show that nearly 48% of independent retailers have reported falling turnover compared with last year. The biggest pressures they face include:

• Reduced customer footfall and spending (63.4%)

• Competition from online rivals (57.4%)

• Rising wage and employment costs (39%)

(Retail Insight Network, NAJ Survey)

These figures underline the importance of smarter procurement strategies and stronger supplier partnerships to help independents remain competitive.

Retail Sales See Mixed Results

Despite these challenges, the UK retail sector managed a modest 0.7% growth in 2024, reversing two years of contraction.

• Retail sales volumes rose 1.9% in the final quarter of 2024.

• However, store footfall declined by 2.2% year-on-year in December 2024.

(Tokio Marine HCC Retail Report 2025)

This suggests a shifting landscape where independents need the right products at the right time to keep pace with changing consumer behaviour.

Procurement & Supply Chain Trends

The UK supply chain management market is valued at $1.7 billion and forecast to reach $4.6 billion by 2033, growing at nearly 12% annually. Procurement is evolving fast, with brands and retailers prioritising:

• Resilience – building stronger, more reliable supply chains.

• Data & AI – using technology to forecast demand and optimise sourcing.

• Sustainability – ensuring materials and processes meet consumer and regulatory expectations.

(IMARC Group – UK Supply Chain Market, BearingPoint Retail Trends 2025)